The pivot that never was
Due to a snow day at MIT earlier this week, instead of attending a live lecture we were asked to watch a recorded version filmed last year…
Due to a snow day at MIT earlier this week, instead of attending a live lecture we were asked to watch a recorded version filmed last year. The class, about probability theory, drew on several examples to illustrate its various points, including two that were very topical in the spring of 2016. The first related to Steph Curry’s remarkable field goal percentage in his MVP-winning season with the Golden State Warriors. Plus ça change: even though, since the arrival of Kevin Durant, Curry has received less attention, he’s still shooting a career average 44% for three pointers.
Yet another prediction seemed ironic in retrospect. Discussing conditional probability, the lecturer drew on the then ongoing Republican primary, demonstrating the effect that each candidate winning would have on the GOP’s overall chance of winning the White House. Of the four candidates remaining in the race at that time, Donald Trump was assigned the lowest chance of converting a party nomination into a presidential win.
Of course, history proved this projection wrong. But what is remarkable in retrospect isn’t that Trump ultimately prevailed, per se, but that he was able to do so without ever really “pivoting” to the general electorate. And it might be argued that we are seeing the results of this non-pivot now: since being inaugurated, just as when he won the nomination, Trump has felt no need to moderate his tone nor his policies. Citing his electoral college win and his mass rallies, his claim of public support has never been nullified by an electoral drubbing. One wonders what the effect of such a drubbing in 2018 would be on his agenda and his attitude.