Trump’s Tipping Point
On the day he was inaugurated, Donald Trump’s approval rating was treading water at 45%, with another 45% disapproving. Today, not even a…
On the day he was inaugurated, Donald Trump’s approval rating was treading water at 45%, with another 45% disapproving. Today, not even a month into his administration, that rating stands at just 40%, with fully 55% disapproving, for a net negative 15%.
To be clear, presidents including Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama have survived underwater ratings in their first term, only to bounce back and win re-election. But the speed with which Trump’s approval has fallen — from the already historically low altitude by the standards of newly inaugurated presidents — portends trouble.
At this point, the key variable is the extent to which congressional Republicans continue to show loyalty to Trump. After several waves of scandals, gaffes and botched policy rollouts, prominent senators such as John McCain and Ben Sasse, as well as leading House Republicans such as Jason Chaffetz, have led criticism for Trump’s actions — all while congressional leaders Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan have largely held firm in their support.
If Trump’s numbers keep falling, and he continues to flunk even some of the easier tests of an efficient administration, Republicans under threat in 2018’s midterms may start to waver in their support. Yet timing will be everything: whatever his performance in office, Trump has undoubtedly succeeded in remaking the GOP in his image, and any representatives stepping out of line will surely face the wrath of a primary challenge. Still, Republicans in moderate districts hoping to avoid a primary and still win in November will face the mother of all pivots to the center, to win a race without the polarizing Trump and Clinton further up the ballot.
So if congressional Republicans start jumping ship before this year is out, Trump is clearly in trouble. Yet if he can hold an embattled party together through 2018 — and on a map which is favorable to Republicans in both the House and Senate — Trump will be in as good a shape as the last three presidents to win reelection.