What Kamala can learn from Keir

Patriotism, a prosecutorial background, small shifts on foreign policy, and embracing her autobiography may just salvage the White House.

So, farewell then Joe Biden—who will exit the political stage in January having accomplished more in four years than most achieve in eight, and certainly more than anyone expected four years ago. But his biggest achievement, as yet unearned, would be the one that eluded Barack Obama: to hand off the presidency to the first woman to occupy the Oval Office.

The political moment is a very different one to that of late July 2016, albeit animated by precisely the same threat, namely Donald J Trump. We’re all wiser and wearier about what a Trump presidency would mean today than in 2016, and the prospect is taken much more seriously; the roughly 70-30 chance of a second Trump term as I write is almost the reverse of the margin that favoured Clinton eight years ago. And Harris’s candidacy is a different prospect to Clinton’s. Harris is considerably younger than Clinton was and would be America’s second non-white president. She has a formidable record as a career prosecutor that will be far less of a detriment than it was in the Democratic Primary in 2020, and may indeed be an asset against the many-times-indicted and once-convicted Trump. She is also eloquent on camera and on the stump, and, while not free from the odd verbal slip, these are in the mould of Joe Biden in 2008 rather than Joe Biden in 2024 on the gaffometer. And she has a record of accomplishments in government on which she can run, with a string of legislative achievements for which both she and Joe Biden deserve credit, but which he proved sadly incapable of claiming.

This—plus an expected fundraising bump as the Democratic Party coalesces, a possible polling bump as she is “reintroduced” to the public, and the chance to anoint her own VP—make me relatively optimistic that Harris will at least run Trump closer than an ailing Biden would have. But it’s still a tall order to prevent a Trump return (and even if she were in the lead, a thumping victory would give less oxygen for another “Stop the Steal” movement than a slight one). So on the assumption that Harris will be the nominee (and I think this is a fair assumption given the endorsements that are flowing in by the minute, as I write), perhaps she might look across the pond for evidence of a recent winning electoral strategy that (mostly) held together a centrist-progressive alliance and kept a conservative party out of government.

1. Focus on service

Keir Starmer will be most remembered for reminding audiences that his “father was a toolmaker”, but a close second will be his slogan “country first, party second”. Starmer’s emphasis on national service (distinct from the Conservative policy of National Service) was designed to show the public how much the Labour Party had changed under his leadership from that of Jeremy Corbyn. Harris’s job is different: to draw a contrast between her party and Trump’s, whose selective endorsements and loyalty tests have rendered the Republican Party the political equivalent of a wholly owned subsidiary of the Trump Organization. Outward displays of patriotism come easier to American politicians of all stripes than those of Europe, so this won’t be as striking a break as that of Starmer’s was for Labour. Nonetheless, it won’t hurt to remind Americans how the previous presumptive Democratic nominee just made a personal political sacrifice to ensure competent American leadership.

2. Neutralise (or win on) law and order

Trump has been making much of a claimed scourge of crime in American cities, but in truth violent crime has been falling under Biden, since a pandemic peak. What’s more, Harris has similar declines to point to under her watch as the Attorney General of California. Starmer, in opposition, similarly drew on his background as Director of Public Prosecutions to draw a contrast with a Conservative Party whose current and former leaders had both received police cautions and genuine public opprobrium over lockdown-breaking offences. If Harris can flip criminal justice around on Trump (again, the indicted and convicted Trump!) she will neutralise a traditionally Republican issue. But this needs to be done with finesse; Trump has been trying to leverage his own conviction to boost his standing with Black voters on the issue of crime, and even minor success at this effort would drive a wedge through the Democratic base.

3. Symbolic shifts on foreign policy

Between an assassination attempt on one candidate and, now, the other candidate standing down, attention has drifted from the ongoing human tragedy in Gaza, and the Biden administration’s contorted role in it. Here, it is Biden, not Trump, from whom Harris should consider some careful differentiation. In public and in private, Harris has been more forthright than Biden in holding Israel to account for its conduct in Gaza, and she stands to gain electorally from presenting herself as both more compassionate about Palestinian suffering and more combative towards Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu, who has cynically run rings around Biden since the war broke out. Foreign policy in the UK is generally a lot more consensus-based, but Starmer eventually found a way (after a bizarre gaffe) to communicate more urgency around the need for a ceasefire than his Conservative counterpart. Notably, Harris will not win the White House without Michigan, which includes a significant Muslim American population alienated by the administration’s current stance.

4. Don’t be afraid of your autobiography

Class is a captivating topic in the UK to a far greater degree in the US, and Starmer worked hard to communicate his credentials as the UK’s most genuinely working class prime minister for at least half a century. Sometimes these efforts approached farcical levels—a TV audience burst out laughing when he reiterated the toolmaker line—but it undoubtedly increased the salience of that part of his identity. In a sense, Harris faces a similar problem, as an incumbent VP who Trump will look to cast as a Washington insider (as well as insinuating favouritism on account of her race and gender, no doubt). Starmer showed, sometimes torturously, that it’s better to run on your autobiography than run from it, and Harris should likewise embrace her identity, and draw a clear line between that and her already-historic accomplishment as the first female and non-white VP. And if it involves contrasting with the fact that Trump got half a billion dollars from his Dad, so be it.

It’s vital to note that electorally, Harris is in a far worse position than Starmer was at the outset of the campaign (jokes abound at the wish-granting genie Starmer must have in his attic, such has been his luck). Incumbents are très unpopular worldwide and Harris will have to work hard to cast herself as different enough from Biden (and Trump) to mark a break from a status quo that Americans remain dissatisfied with, whilst keeping credit for the Biden administration’s genuine accomplishments. In short, Harris could do all the above, run a campaign twice as effective as Starmer’s, and still lose. But at least Democrats now have a fighting chance. And while nobody would laud the moral rectitude of today’s Tory Party, it was striking to compare the warmth between Starmer and the gracious-in-defeat Rishi Sunak with that of the scenes of violence and chaos at the Capitol in January 2021, following Trump’s refusal to accept the result of the election. In other words, the stakes of this election could not be higher for America or for the world. In ushering Biden out, Democrats have taken the first step towards preventing a Trump return. But to borrow a phrase from baseball, they need to throw a perfect game between now and November to finish the job. Harris has her work cut out, but the match is far from over.